How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? Here's what the data shows

We will see six more weeks of winter, according the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle, a group that organizes the titular winter spectacle and cares for the starring animal. The group announced that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow after being brought out from his den as a crowd watched and cameras beamed his image around the world. The renowned rodent allegedly communicated his prediction in "groundhogese."

Punxsutawney Phil has been making forecasts since the late 1800s, but his predictions have been a little off. How good has he been at predicting winter weather? Not so hot, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Here's a look at Phil's record:

NOAA grades Punxsutawney Phil's predictions

According to the Groundhog Club's archives, Punxsutawney Phil has now seen his shadow 109 times, or 84% of the 130 times he has predicted the weather. From 1903 until 1933, he observed his shadow every year, making 32 his longest run.

In his more than 135 years of experience, he has an overall accuracy rating of just 35%, according to NOAA.

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Weather-predicting animals that can predict better than Punxsutawney Phil

When it comes to predicting weather, Punxsutawney Phil appears to have some rivals. These other fuzzy forecasting animals in the United States have had much higher prediction rates, according to data from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

NOAA predicts a warmer outlook for US

Winter usually has a ways to go when the groundhog emerges because December, January and February are the three coldest months of the year in the U.S.

According to NOAA's temperature outlook for the February, March and April 2026 forecast, temperatures will remain above average for the majority of the U.S. – especially in the South, East and Southwest.

Active storm patterns and below-average temperatures are also anticipated in the northern tier, which includes the Northern Plains, Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.

Where is Groundhog Day celebrated?

People flock to Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, on Feb. 2 every year to be a part of the celebrations revolving around Punxsutawney Phil's forecast.

The holiday stems from a centuries-old pagan and Christian tradition, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. It is also known as St. Brigid’s Day.

German settlers brought the tradition to America, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. But before they made the trek to America, they checked to see if a hedgehog saw its shadow, not a groundhog.

NOTE: Parts of this story published previously on Jan. 31, 2025. This story was updated to add new information.

SOURCE: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, National Centers for Environmental Information and USA TODAY research