Betcha Didn't Know: What to expect for Week 15 wagers

With three weeks remaining in the 2015 NFL regular season, eight teams have exceeded expectations as far as Las Vegas is concerned. In addition, another seven teams are guaranteed to fall short. Let me explain.

Each year, the sports books in Las Vegas establish a season win total for every team in the league. Entering the 2015 NFL season, four teams — the Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers — were all projected to win 10 or more games, with Seattle leading the pack with 11 predicted wins.

This information can be particularly useful from a wagering standpoint, as teams that have exceeded expected win totals tend to let down both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) while those that have underperformed but have a chance to reach their preseason win totals are generally profitable down the stretch.

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Let’s look closer:

EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS

Entering Game 14 of the season, the eight major overachievers, or those who have already surpassed expectations (projected wins listed in parenthesis) have been: the Carolina Panthers (8.5) with 13 wins; the Arizona Cardinals (eight) and Patriots (10.5) with 11; the Cincinnati Bengals (8.5) with 10; the Minnesota Vikings (6.5) and New York Jets (6.5) with eight; and the Oakland Raiders (4.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.5) with six.

DISAPPOINTING RESULTS

The seven biggest underachievers to date, or those who have no chance to surpass Vegas’ expected win totals, are: the San Diego Chargers (8.5) with three; the Dallas Cowboys (9.5), Baltimore Ravens (nine), Detroit Lions (8.5) and San Francisco 49ers (8.5) with four; the New Orleans Saints (nine) with five; and the Indianapolis Colts (9.5) with six.

TO BE DETERMINED

The following teams sit on the season-win-total bubble: the Broncos (10) with 10; the Packers (10) with nine; the Kansas City Chiefs (8.5) with eight; the Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5) and Seahawks (11) with eight; the Philadelphia Eagles (nine) with seven; the Washington Redskins (six), Atlanta Falcons (eight), New York Giants (eight), Buffalo Bills (8.5) and Houston Texans (8.5) with six; the Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5), Chicago Bears (seven), St. Louis Rams (7.5) and Miami Dolphins (eight) with five; and the Tennessee Titans (five) and Cleveland Browns (six) with three.

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TWO-MINUTE HANDICAP

Tampa Bay at St. Louis: Buccaneers — 1-5 ATS on Thursdays. ... Rams — 5-1 ATS in this series.

New York Jets at Dallas: Jets — 1-4 ATS in this series. ... Cowboys — 7-1 ATS in their seventh home game and as an underdog.

Chicago at Minnesota: Bears — 4-0 ATS before playing the Buccaneers. ... Vikings — 2-13 ATS as favorites before the last home game of the season.

Atlanta at Jacksonville: Falcons — 10-1 ATS in the last road game of the season. ... Jaguars — 1-10 ATS as favorites after facing the Colts.

Houston at Indianapolis: Texans — 1-6-1 ATS in this series, including 0-4-1 ATS as a visitor. ... Colts — 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 division games.

Kansas City at Baltimore: Chiefs — 7-1 ATS before back-to-back home games when facing a sub-.500 opponent. ... Ravens — 0-4 ATS before facing the Steelers.

Buffalo at Washington: Bills — 8-1 ATS away coming off an away game and facing a non-division opponent. ... Redskins — 0-6 SU and ATS in this series.

Tennessee at New England: Titans — 1-8 ATS coming off an away game and facing an opponent off an away game... Patriots — 14-3 SU and ATS in their last home game of the season.

Arizona at Philadelphia: Cardinals — 8-15 SU and ATS on Sunday nights but 3-1 ATS away on Sunday nights. ... Eagles — 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in this series.

Carolina at New York Giants: Panthers — 2-11 SU and 0-13 ATS before playing the Falcons and facing a non-division opponent. ... Giants — 4-0 ATS at home vs. 9-0 or greater opponents.

Cleveland at Seattle: Browns — 4-0 ATS away coming off back-to-back home games. ... Seahawks — 1-5 ATS at home off back-to-back away games.

Green Bay at Oakland: Packers — 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in this series. ... Raiders — 1-6 ATS at home vs. NFC opponents.

Miami at San Diego: Dolphins — 6-1 ATS in the last road game of the season after facing a non-division foe. ... Chargers — 0-6 ATS coming off an away game vs. an opponent off a home game.

Denver at Pittsburgh: Broncos — 6-1 ATS before back-to-back home games... Steelers — 6-0 ATS in their last home game of the season.

Cincinnati at San Francisco: Bengals — 5-1 ATS after facing the Steelers. ... 49ers — 0-5 ATS off back-to-back away games.

Detroit at New Orleans: Lions — 2-14 ATS off an SU loss as a favorite vs. an opponent off an SU and ATS win. ... Saints — 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as a favorite on Monday night.

STAT OF THE WEEK

NFL teams 13-0 or better are 1-11 ATS, including 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS, vs. non-division opponents since 1998.

Lawrence is publisher of the weekly “Playbook Football” newsletter at Playbook.com and host of the “Marc Lawrence Against the Spread” football podcast.