Tropical Storm Arthur could soon form in the Gulf. See tracker

The first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – Tropical Storm Arthur – could form Tuesday, and although it is expected to be a short-lived one, it could bring intense rain over portions of the Gulf Coast and the South in the coming days.

The National Hurricane Center said in a June 16 advisory that a trough of low pressure located inland near the Texas/Mexico border continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Forecasters said the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday, June 16. with environmental conditions expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a tropical storm later Tuesday or Wednesday.

"Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding," the hurricane center said in the advisory, adding that gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast.

See Atlantic storm tracker

Which areas could see the most rain?

Areas between Corpus Christi, Texas, and Lake Charles, Louisiana, as well as in southwest Mississippi, are likely to see the heaviest rainfall, with maximum totals reaching or exceeding 15 inches in isolated spots, said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in his blog The Eyewall.

"This is the most significant rainfall setup in this area since 2024," Lanza said. As the Weather Prediction Center noted, “any storms that develop in this environment (will have) an almost unnatural ability to produce heavy rain."

According to the National Weather Service office in Houston, a flood watch is in effect for all of southeast Texas through Thursday morning. Forecasters said rainfall amounts of 4-7 inches are expected, with isolated totals of 10 or more inches expected through midweek.

The NWS office in New Orleans said 4-6 inches of additional rainfall could fall through Friday evening and that a few areas could also see more than 10 inches of rain through Saturday morning.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].