New Maine Senate poll finds Platner with narrow lead over Collins

WASHINGTON – Democrat Graham Platner holds a narrow lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race despite recent controversies over the Democratic nominee's past conduct, according to a new poll from the New York Times/Siena University.

Platner leads Collins among likely voters 49%-47%, within the survey's margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, meaning the race is in a statistical dead heat. The poll, a sample of 608 likely voters, was taken by landline and cell phones June 19-26. It was released June 29.

Still, in a sign that Platner's negative media coverage has potentially taken a toll, the poll found 54% of likely Maine voters would prefer Democrats take control of the Senate ‒ a larger share of voters than those who say they back Platner.

Democrats also hold a wider lead over Republicans in the generic ballot, 53%-42%, when respondents were asked which party they would be more likely to vote for in the 2026 midterm election for Congress.

Maine represents one of Democrats' strongest shots to flip a Republican held-state as they look to take control of the Senate, which Republicans currently control by a 53-47 seat margin. But Platner, an oyster farmer, political newcomer and favorite of the progressive wing of the party, must overcome multiple controversies that came to light during his primary campaign. That includes revelations of Platner's now-covered tattoo of a skull and crossbones that resembles a Nazi symbol and sexual text messages Platner sent to several women outside of his marriage.

Collins leads Platner on character questions, poll finds

Despite facing allegations involving his treatment of women, Platner leads Collins among female voters in Maine, 52-44%, the poll found. Collins leads among male voters, 52%-45%.

But Collins has an advantage over Platner with questions about candidate character. The poll found 61% of likely voters believe Collins has "the right kind of moral values," compared to 45% who said the same about Platner. Sixty-six percent of the poll's respondents said Collins has good character, while 44% said Platner does.

Platner has staked out a populist message and centered his campaign on the middle class. Yet Collins leads the Democrat overwhelmingly, 59%- 36%, among white voters who lack college degrees. Platner leads among white voters with college degrees, 68%-31%, over Collins, matching a similar education divide nationally for the two parties.

Maine's strong disapproval of Trump boosts Platner

Collins, 73, is seeking her sixth term in office. She won her last Senate race in 2020 by a comfortable 51%-42% margin even though Democrats circled Maine as a top race that year.

Similar to the 2020 playbook, Platner has taken aim at Collins' reputation as a moderate Republican with an independent streak by focusing on her past votes supporting President Donald Trump's agenda.

Working in Platner's favor, the poll found 60% of likely Maine voters disapprove of Trump's job performance as president, while 39% approve. The poll found 61% of respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 33% who said the nation is on the right track.

Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison.