Casual drinker? You still have a 1 in 25 risk of dying, study says

The "less is more" approach to alcohol may be replaced by "none is best" if you're hoping to avoid diseases like cancer, according to a new study at odds with recent federal guidance.

Adults should stick to one drink (generally 12 ounces of beer, 5 ounces of wine or 1.5 ounces of spirits) a day, or seven drinks total a week, if they hope to avoid the worst of health effects associated with alcohol, according to the study published June 8 in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs. And even that rate is not devoid of risk, the study's authors caution.

After conducting a large-scale review of more than 7,200 studies on alcohol-related disease, the authors found that the risk of serious illness or death from alcohol begins with drinking habits that are generally considered "moderate" by Americans. Seven drinks per week gives you a 1 in 1,000 lifetime risk of death, while adding just two more — for a total of nine drinks — increases that risk to 1 in 100.

If you stick to the old federal guidelines, which set a limit of two drinks a day or 14 drinks per week, that stat surges to a whopping 1 in 25 risk of death. These rates were fairly consistent, with relatively small variation, among men and women.

What's worse for those who enjoy a glass with dinner: that old "a bit of red wine is good for you" wisdom is a myth. No amount of drinking provides any health benefits that outweigh the harms, according to the study.

"No protective effect of drinking was observed even at low levels,” study co-author Katherine M. Keyes, professor of epidemiology at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, said in a news release from the college. "... even moderate levels of consumption increase the risk of premature death and disability."

At even just one drink per day or seven drinks per week, you are more likely to develop or die from associated conditions, including cirrhosis of the liver, cancer (including esophageal, oral and especially breast), cardiovascular disease and related injuries (like car accidents), than someone who doesn't drink at all. The danger of developing some of these conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, is reduced by sticking to the one-drink-a-day rule, but it remains higher than in non-drinkers.

The bottom line? Drinking increases your risk of adverse health effects, no matter how small the amount. The more you drink, the higher those chances are, and they scale rapidly - at least according to this study.

What do federal guidelines say about drinking?

The new findings are at odds with previous federal health guidelines, which capped the recommended number of drinks at 14 per week for men and one drink per day or seven per week for women. They are also arguably not represented in the new dietary guidelines laid out by RFK Jr.'s HHS/USDA in January, which opted for a vague suggestion to "consume less alcohol for better overall health” without specifying or defining consumption limits.

The study was originally commissioned by the Biden administration and partially funded by the Department of Health and Human Services for this purpose, former HHS official Robert Vincent wrote in an accompanying editorial, but was "sidelined" amid criticisms from the alcohol industry. Instead of informing the new guidelines, as was originally intended, a draft first released last year languished until its publication this week, it said.

A January congressional report conducted under the Trump administration accused the study authors and Biden administration of bias and an "attempt to undermine the 2025-2030 dietary guidelines," which some alcohol trade groups have pointed to as proof the study should be disregarded altogether.

In part, the report points to affiliations of some researchers on the project as proof of bias, such as Dr. Kevin Shield, a researcher at the Institute for Mental Health Policy Research and Head of the World Health Organization/Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Collaborating Centre in Addiction and Mental Health Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in Toronto, Canada.

Organizations like the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S. have called the study "irretrievably flawed" and written by "anti-alcohol activist researchers," though Emily Hilliard, a spokeswoman for the HHS, told USA TODAY in a statement that any characterization that the study was "sidelined" was "inaccurate."

“HHS and USDA reviewed the study alongside the broader body of available scientific evidence and followed the established process for developing the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans," she said. "Ultimately, the Dietary Guidelines were based on the best available scientific research. One thing is clear: the evidence on alcohol and health has been remarkably consistent over time."

Ultimately, the study suggests that the USDA issue updated guidance telling Americans to limit drinking to a maximum of one drink a day.