Will bird flu impact your Thanksgiving shopping? What to know.

Thanksgiving turkeys might gobble up more of your wallet this year as bird flu ruffles supply chains, although the impact may not be felt the same nationwide.

The H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly known as bird flu, has been spreading among commercial flocks of birds in the United States since Feb. 8, 2022. H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is easily transferable to backyard flocks or those used for mass food production.

Other animals are also susceptible, with dairy herds, cats, dogs and humans having been known to become infected, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Inflated food prices are already on the minds of Americans in the lead-up to the holidays, and bird flu has the potential to hinder Thanksgiving festivities, specifically. Will you be greeted by sky-high prices or poultry purchase limits when you head to the store for a holiday shop? Here's what we know.

How bad is bird flu in the U.S. right now?

According to the latest USDA data through Nov. 21, 1.82 million birds were confirmed as being impacted by avian flu in the last 30 days, including 38 commercial flocks.

Since February 2022, more than 30 million birds have been affected by HPAI. Cases have been confirmed in some capacity in all 50 states.

The news has been bad for turkeys: There have been 124 individual outbreaks of HPAI on commercial turkey farms in 2025, according to USDA data and industry watchdog group Farm Forward.

Roughly 3.8 million turkeys have been killed due to bird flu this year, nearly 2% of the total turkey flock in the United States. About 2.1 million of those have been killed since late August.

What's going on with turkey prices?

Turkey prices are up, but not all of the additional cost has been passed onto the consumer, it seems.

Wholesale prices, or what retailers pay for turkeys that will then go to store shelves, have jumped 40% from a year ago, according to USDA data. An analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that the turkey supply in the U.S. is the lowest it has been in 40 years.

Data compiled by FinanceBuzz, which checked the price of Butterball birds from at least three grocery stores in each state, found that retail turkey prices are up 11.2% nationwide since 2024, averaging $2.31 per pound. Americans should expect to pay about $34.65 for a 15-pound frozen turkey this year, as opposed to $31.16 in 2024. This is still a better deal than 2022 and 2023, however, when the average price was over $35.

An annual report by the Purdue University College of Agriculture, published on Oct. 29, found that wholesale turkey prices had surged 75% since October 2024, reaching $1.71 per pound in October 2025, according to available USDA information. It projected a $2.05 per pound cost in November, a 25% increase in per-pound retail price.

The latest Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute analysis, on the other hand, found that the cost of a full Thanksgiving dinner, overall, had gone down about 2% to 3%, despite at-home food prices being up 2.7% in September 2025 versus 2024, according to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). It's worth noting that the CPI number is somewhat skewed due to outlier prices for beef and eggs earlier this year, which were caused by bird flu, tariffs and supply demands.

The American Farm Bureau Federation also found that turkey was taking up less of the Thanksgiving budget this year compared to last year. Its analysis placed the cost of the average fresh 16-pound turkey at $21.50, which it said was down 16% from 2024. 

The availability of some information has also been impacted by the government shutdown, during which time monitoring and reporting of data not considered mission-critical were paused for 43 days.

Why do turkey prices vary so widely?

Why the difference? Overall averages and wholesale prices don't immediately translate to what Americans will experience when walking into the grocery stores.

"There’s typically a wide price range around that average. Part of this variation is driven by quality; for example, higher prices for organic or pasture-raised turkeys," the Purdue analysis said. "But retailer discounts are another big driver of variation in retail prices. Grocery retailers are competing for customers, and, in addition to turkeys, they sell everything else that you might put in your pantry." Fresh versus frozen also makes a difference, a USDA Agricultural Marketing Service report for the week of Nov. 15 found.

Both Aldi and Walmart, for example, announced Thanksgiving meals to feed 10 for just $40. When and where you choose to buy also has a substantial impact, according to both Purdue and Wells Fargo, as people who give themselves more time to compare prices and buy when demand is lower are more likely to beat the turkeyflation.

The state you live in also has an impact, according to FinanceBuzz data. Alaska and Hawaii, as with many goods, contend with outlier prices of $55.70 and $42.35. In the contiguous United States, only two states had turkey prices that surpassed an average of $40 per 15-pound bird: Iowa at $41.35 and Montana at $40.85.

Oklahomans, however, can expect to pay about $24.85, and Texans will spend an average of $25.85.

What about the rest of that Thanksgiving meal?

Despite rising food costs, not every dish on the table will have contributed to a higher bill this year.

Potato prices have dipped 0.5% since August 2024, and bread prices are down 5.6% since the same period, according to Purdue. Dinner rolls are down 14.6%, stuffing is down 9% and cranberries are down 2.8%, the American Farm Bureau Federation reported, though sweet potatoes were up 37% and frozen peas up 17%.

To put it plainly, it all depends. The good news is that sales and deals for a cheaper Thanksgiving are on the rise, with the USDA reporting that 83% of analyzed stores were offering additional specials like BOGO or free bundle items on top of direct pricing discounts the week before Thanksgiving.

Contributing: Betty Lin-Fisher, USA TODAY