Trump wants to topple Iran's regime. History says that doesn't work.
Removing leaders of other countries – as President Donald Trump wants to do with the leadership council in Iran – is known as foreign-imposed regime change. However, studies show that such actions usually doesn’t work.
As the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Feb. 28, Trump said he wanted to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which would threaten the United States. He also advocated overthrowing the Iranian regime.
Trump urged citizens in Iran to “seize control” of their government. “When we are finished, take over your government,” Trump said in an eight-minute video that was posted shortly after the attacks started. “It will be yours to take.”
Trump also said he should have a role in choosing Iran’s new leader.
Foreign intervention rarely results in a change for the better, according to the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, which noted a “heightened risk of civil war or of further destabilizing already fragile state institutions.”
They’re also likely to “lead to lower levels of democracy and increased repression,” according to the Cato Institute.
The United States has been involved in regime change operations over the years with mixed success. Here’s a look at some of them:
Direct military interventions
1983 | Grenada: U.S.‑led Operation Urgent Fury topples the Revolutionary Military Council and installs an interim government. Elections are restored, but the United Nations condemned the operation as a violation of international law.
1986 | Libya: In Operation El Dorado Canyon, President Ronald Reagan orders air strikes on Muammar Gaddafi’s compound in Tripoli and Libyan "terrorist centers" in 1986, after connecting Libyan agents to the bombing of a Berlin nightclub that killed two U.S. servicemen and injured dozens. Gaddafi survives.
1989-90 | Panama:U.S. Operation Just Cause deposes dictator Manuel Noriega and dismantles the Panama Defense Forces. The military dictatorship ends as president‑elect Guillermo Endara is sworn in.
1994-95 | Haiti: U.S.‑led multinational Operation Uphold Democracy compels the Haitian military junta to step down. Elected President Jean‑Bertrand Aristide is restored to office. However, the 2000 elections were judged as flawed, and a rebellion toppled Aristide again in 2004.
2001 | Afghanistan: U.S. Operation Enduring Freedom, an invasion after the Sept. 11 attacks, overthrew the Taliban government. A Taliban insurgency follows and civilian casualties rise in the late 2000s. The republic collapses in 2021 and the Taliban retakes control.
2003 | Iraq: U.S.‑led Operation Iraqi Freedom removes Saddam Hussein and his regime. Al-Qaeda insurgents fomented violence in the following years, and a Sunni-Shia civil war broke out in 2006. While the nation has stabilized, ISIS remains a low-level threat. An estimated 24,865 civilians were reported killed in the first two years of the conflict.
2011: Libya: U.S.-led Operation Odyssey Dawn and allies enforce U.N. resolutions establishing no‑fly zones and protection of civilians. NATO later assumes command. While the U.N. resolution does not authorize regime change, it enables Libyan rebels to overthrow and kill the leader Gaddafi. Two rival parliaments emerge and civil war breaks out in 2014. Hostilities continue until the U.N. brokers a ceasefire in 2020. Rival factions persist and national unity is incomplete.
2026 | Venezuela: U.S. military forces stage Operation Absolute Resolve to remove President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores during a U.S. military attack on Jan. 3. Maduro, who had been indicted in March 2020 in U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, is taken to New York where he is arraigned on federal charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy and two illegal weapons counts.
2026 | Iran: Ongoing U.S. Operation Epic Fury begins striking targets inside Iran with the goal of replacing the Iranian government and halting its nuclear program.
Covert coups, destabilizations, and assassination plots
1953 | Iran: CIA/MI6 operation TPAJAX topples the elected government of MohammadMosadegh and restores Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, to power.
1954 | Guatemala: CIA operation PBSUCCESS overthrows President Jacobo Árbenz.
1961 | Congo: A CIA plot to assassinate Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba is carried out by Congolese and Belgian agents. The Senate Church Committee later documents U.S. planning in the plot.
1960s | Cuba: Revolutionary leader Fidel Castro is the target of multiple CIA assassination plots in the 1960s. A failed paramilitary invasion in the Bay of Pigs in 1961 was launched to force regime change.
1963 | South Vietnam: U.S. officials back a generals’ coup that deposes and kills President Ngô Đình Diệm. Though President John F. Kennedy did not order the assassination, he authorized officials to end support of Diệm.
1965 | Dominican Republic: In Operation Power Pack, the U.S. sent troops to what became known as the "Dominican intervention" and, under an international force compiled by the Organization of American States installed a new government. However, that government was tarnished by reports of political repression, forced disappearances and the assassination of opponents.
1973 | Chile: The United States backs a coup by the Chilean military that overthrows democratically elected President Salvador Allende. General Augusto Pinochet established a military dictatorship that ended in 1990.
Will the war bring about political change in Iran?
Though U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders on the first day of the war, it appears unlikely that Iranians will rise and form a new government.
Iran’s leadership is still in control. It has limited the flow of information inside the country, planning to install successors, and has repressed, sometimes brutally, other attempts at political change in the past.
CONTRIBUTING Michael Collins, Gabrielle Banks, Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODAY
SOURCE USA TODAY Network reporting and research; Reuters; Office of the Historian, U.S. Department of State; Center for Justice & Accountability; globalsecurity.org; Air Force Historical Support Division