Severe weather returns to Great Lakes. See cities at greatest risk
- Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
- The highest risk for severe weather is in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, with threats of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
- Major cities at risk include Minneapolis, Saint Paul, Madison, and Milwaukee.
- The active storm pattern is forecast to continue into Tuesday across the Midwest, Plains, and parts of the Northeast.
Since spring has taken hold across the central U.S., the active storm pattern is continuing — and today brings another round of severe thunderstorms from the Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
A broad swath of the country — from the Southern Plains through the Midwest and into parts of the Great Lakes — will see at least some thunderstorm potential today, underscoring a widespread and unstable atmosphere ahead of multiple disturbances moving across the U.S.
The overall setup is being driven by strengthening winds aloft, a developing surface low tracking into the Upper Midwest, and a stalled frontal boundary draped across the region. That combination is creating a corridor of high instability and strong wind shear, especially near the Minnesota–Wisconsin border.
“Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes, mainly late this afternoon into tonight,” the Storm Prediction Center wrote in its Day 1 outlook.
Which major cities are at risk?
The highest-impact weather is expected farther north, where storms will intensify this afternoon into tonight across southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. These storms could quickly become strong supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Farther south into the Plains, storms will be more isolated but still capable of severe hail and strong wind gusts if they develop.
Highest risk: Minneapolis, Minnesota; Saint Paul, Minnesota; Rochester, Minnesota; La Crosse, Wisconsin; Madison, Wisconsin; Milwaukee, Wisconsin
The highest risk for severe storms will focus across southern Minnesota into Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop here could quickly become strong supercells, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
The main hazards include very large hail, potentially up to 2 to 3 inches in diameter in the strongest storms, damaging straight-line wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, especially near a stalled frontal boundary. Storms may initially remain discrete before organizing into clusters or lines later tonight, increasing the threat for widespread damaging winds.
Slight risk: Chicago, Illinois; Indianapolis, Indiana
Farther south and east into northern Illinois and Indiana, storm coverage is more uncertain and dependent on how earlier convection evolves. If storms become surface-based, the primary threats would be isolated large hail and pockets of damaging winds. The tornado risk is lower in this corridor but cannot be ruled out if stronger cells can interact with the boundary.
Marginal risk: Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; Wichita Falls, Texas; Amarillo, Texas
Across the Southern Plains, storms will be more isolated along a developing dryline. Where storms can form, they may become strong supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado or two is possible, but storm coverage is expected to remain scattered and dependent on late-day initiation.
More storms this week
The active weather pattern is not letting up after today’s severe setup, with additional rounds of thunderstorms expected Tuesday across the Midwest, Plains and parts of the Northeast.
A stronger storm system will begin to organize over the central U.S., bringing another corridor of severe weather from Iowa into Illinois and Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon and evening. This setup looks especially favorable for repeated rounds of storms along a warm front, where instability and wind shear will overlap.
“Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes,” the Storm Prediction Center wrote in its Day 2 outlook. “Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.”
Rolling storm damage report
As storms move across the country, this interactive map lets you track impacts in real time. See where tornadoes touched down, hail sizes reported, trees knocked over and roads closed due to flooding.
Hover over each icon to view detailed reports from National Weather Service stations right in the strike zone.