Is a Super El Niño coming? How it could shape your weather

• Climate models suggest a powerful "super" El Niño could develop later this year.
• A strong El Niño can disrupt global weather patterns, causing extreme weather events worldwide.
• El Niño typically brings cooler, wetter conditions to the Southern U.S. and milder winters to the North.
• While El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, major storms can still make landfall.

Climate models released this weekend are pointing to what could be the most powerful El Niño event in recorded history — raising the possibility of a rare “super” episode developing later this year.

A “super” El Niño typically — also referred to as a 'Jurassic El Niño' by Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach — refers to unusually strong warming of sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. That warming can disrupt global weather patterns, shifting storm tracks, rainfall and temperatures for months at a time.

Forecasters stress it’s not a certainty yet. But multiple long-range models are now trending warmer, with some pushing into territory rarely seen in modern records — a signal that has caught scientists’ attention.

How does a 'Super' El Niño differ?

Not all El Niño events are created equal. Some are mild and have only localized effects, while others can dramatically reshape weather patterns across the globe. What makes a “Super” El Niño different is its intensity and the scope of its influence.

A stronger El Niño brings more intense warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can significantly alter the jet stream. This shift affects weather systems far beyond the tropics, increasing the likelihood of widespread impacts across multiple continents. Scientists also have higher confidence in predicting the potential consequences when an event reaches this strength.

If this system continues to gain strength through summer and fall, it could rival — or even surpass — some of the most powerful events in modern records, including the 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niños. Those events produced notable global effects, from extreme rainfall and flooding in some regions to droughts and heatwaves in others.

How El Niño impacts weather near you

El Niño’s effects can differ depending on location, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

For instance, the Southern U.S. often experiences cooler and wetter conditions during fall and winter. The pattern can also increase the frequency of storm systems, raising the risk for severe weather events like heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms and occasional flooding.

In contrast, the Northern U.S. typically sees warmer-than-average temperatures when a strong El Niño is underway. Winters tend to be milder overall, with less snow and fewer extended cold spells, which can ease some winter hazards but also affect water supply.

The West Coast, particularly California, faces a higher likelihood of heavy rainfall and flooding during a strong El Niño. Warmer ocean waters can fuel more intense storm systems that bring prolonged rain, raising concerns about landslides, river flooding and other weather-related impacts.

What is the forecast for El Niño during the 2026 hurricane season?

All signs are pointing to a warming in the Pacific Ocean that should birth El Niño by late summer, influencing hurricane season.

“There is a whole pile of models forecasting El Niño,” Klotzbach said. “It think it’s a pretty solid bet, not a slam dunk, but a pretty good bet.”

The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch on March 12 as the current La Niña wanes. Center scientists said there was a 62% chance El Niño emerging in June to August.

It was the first time an El Niño watch was issued while La Niña persists in records dating back about 15 years. El Niño is expected to persist through at least the end of 2026.

Klotzbach said spring can be a difficult time to predict what the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which includes El Niño and La Niña, will do because seasonal shifts can give mixed signals.

“I’ve been surprised before when things looked like a slam dunk and they haven’t played out that way,” said Klotzbach, noting that CSU will also release its seasonal hurricane forecast on April 9.

How do ENSO conditions impact hurricane season?

ENSO conditions — particularly El Niño and La Niña — can shape Atlantic hurricane activity, Klotzbach said. La Niña often favors more active seasons, while El Niño can suppress storms. That’s because warmer Pacific waters alter global wind patterns, creating stronger upper-level wind shear over the Atlantic that can weaken developing hurricanes.

Historically, strong El Niño years have produced fewer Atlantic hurricanes overall, but major storms have still reached U.S. coasts. Even when El Niño reduces the total number of storms, a single major hurricane can still make landfall and cause significant damage.

Since 1950, the warmest El Niño years have seen three major Category 3 or higher hurricanes hit the U.S.: Audrey in 1957, Betsy in 1965, and Idalia in 2023.

Idalia struck near Keaton Beach, Florida, as a Category 3 storm with reported winds of about 115 mph. The National Hurricane Center noted it was the third strongest landfalling hurricane in the Big Bend region in modern history, behind the 1896 Cedar Key Hurricane and 1950’s Hurricane Easy.

By contrast, ENSO-neutral years do not strongly favor or suppress hurricane formation. Other factors — including Atlantic sea surface temperatures, short-term wind patterns, and Saharan dust — often play a larger role in storm formation and intensity. Even busy neutral seasons can produce relatively few U.S. landfalls. For example, the 2005 Atlantic season, which was neutral, produced 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, while 2013 — also neutral — had only 14 named storms, including two hurricanes.

Studies show that during neutral years, the jet stream often steers storms out to sea rather than toward the Gulf Coast or Southeast, reducing overall landfall risk. The 2025 season illustrates this: it began under ENSO-neutral conditions before transitioning to La Niña in October. Thirteen named storms formed, including five hurricanes, but only one tropical storm made East Coast landfall.

Forecasters say conditions in 2026 will likely remain neutral through late summer, meaning the overall number of storms will depend more on local and seasonal factors than on ENSO. If a late-season El Niño does develop, it could reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, but it would not eliminate the risk of a damaging landfall.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than average, according to the National Weather Service. This cooling shifts atmospheric circulation, influencing weather around the globe. La Niña can also affect the jet stream, sometimes contributing to polar vortex disruptions that push Arctic air farther south.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is the opposite pattern, occurring when Pacific Ocean waters in the central and eastern regions are warmer than average, according to NOAA. This warming changes global weather patterns in different ways than La Niña. In the U.S., El Niño winters usually bring wetter, cooler conditions to the southern states and milder, drier weather to the Pacific Northwest.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at [email protected]. Find her on Facebook here.