Trump's attack on Pope Leo XIV may hurt GOP with Catholic voters

• President Donald Trump criticized Pope Leo XIV, the first American pontiff, in a social media post.
• The public disagreement has concerned some of Trump's Catholic allies and could influence the 2026 midterm elections.
• Political observers note the rift is unusually personal and public compared with past disagreements between the White House and the Vatican.

President Donald Trump has stepped on a political hornet's nest with his attacks on Pope Leo XIV that have infuriated Catholics worldwide. The rift with the Vatican could exacerbate an already challenging 2026 election season for congressional Republicans as Trump risks alienating a key constituency.

The president castigated the world's first American pontiff as "weak on crime and terrible for foreign policy" in a long Truth Social post April 12, then told reporters he was "not a big fan" of the religious leader.

Several conservative-leaning Catholic leaders have publicly called on Trump to apologize – which the president rebuffed – saying they shouldn't have to choose between their faith and their country. "There is no doubt that President Trump's post insulting Pope Leo crossed, again, a line of decorum that plays an important part in diplomacy," Kelsey Reinhardt, president and CEO of CatholicVote, a political advocacy group, said April 13 in a post on X.

Catholics are the single largest religious denomination in the United States, accounting for one-fifth of the population, according to the Pew Research Center. Catholics are 10 percentage points more likely to lean toward Republicans than Democrats, Pew found in 2025.

Trump lost the Catholic vote to Joe Biden 52%-47% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls. He won over Catholics 59%-39% against Kamala Harris in 2024.

2026 is expected to be a tough year for the GOP as forecasters shift more races in Democrats' favor.

Republican pollster Brent Buchanan said his polling firm Cygnal has been tracking Catholic voters since the 2022 midterms. He said that American Catholics have repeatedly shown their independence from the Vatican's policy guidance but that if Trump persists in squabbling with the pope, it could spell trouble for the GOP this fall.

"The papacy is an institution that has existed for thousands of years," Buchanan said. "Even if you don't ascribe to Catholicism, you know who the pope is and you have an idea what the pope stands for, and it's usually broad, positive, moral things.

"Catholics tend to be one of the swingier groups in the country, and pretty much whatever direction Catholics go politically, the country goes politically. They're almost like a bellwether of sorts. So it's unnecessary noise for an important swing group."

Leo, who leads roughly 1.4 billion Catholics, clapped back at the president, saying he had "no fear" of the administration. He affirmed that he would continue speaking out against the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and defend migrants against the Trump administration's intense deportation campaign.

Political scientists note that Washington and the Vatican have been at odds over policy before, but this war of words is uniquely bitter.

"There's never been anything this public, this personal or this partisan," David Campbell, a political science professor at the University of Notre Dame, a Catholic institution, told USA TODAY in an interview.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Vice President JD Vance, a convert to Catholicism, indicated in comments April 14 that the Trump administration won't be backing off and takes issue with Leo's antiwar comments.

"I think it's very, very important for the pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology," Vance said at an event hosted by the conservative advocacy group Turning Point USA.

Conservative Catholics plea for cooling off between the two

U.S. presidents have for decades courted a relationship with the papacy because of the growing influence of Catholic voters since 1959, when Dwight D. Eisenhower had an audience with John XXIII.

But it has often been a difficult political terrain to navigate for presidents in both parties. Republicans such as Trump are often at odds with the Catholic Church's teachings on war, social justice, immigration and the death penalty, and Democrats have struggled with Catholic opposition to their support for abortion rights and gay rights.

The pope is often viewed as an honest broker in international diplomacy, such as when Pope John Paul II implicitly criticized President George W. Bush over the war in Iraq.

An NBC poll in March found Leo is more popular than Trump, which made his explicit denunciations of the war against Iran over the past few weeks harder to ignore. It became particularly relevant as administration officials evoked Jesus and other references when asking for the country's support of the U.S. mission.

Even conservative Catholics who support Trump's policies are wary of his tone. Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation, a group closely aligned with the White House, said the two men "ultimately want the same thing" for the United States and Iran, and that is peace.

"As a serious Roman Catholic and a proud supporter of President Trump, I believe the world would benefit from more direct dialogue between these two leaders, modeled after the fruitful relationship between Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II," Roberts told USA TODAY in a statement.

"While I believe there are more constructive ways for the President to engage with the church on policy disagreements, I fully share the president’s goal − along with most Americans − of bringing this conflict in Iran to a quick and lasting end."

Reinhardt, the CatholicVote leader, said too many people are trying to turn a "public disagreement into a grand showdown" between Trump and Leo. "That is false, and Catholics should reject it," she said.

Bishop Robert Barron, who serves on the president's Religious Liberty Commission, said in an April 13 post on X that "serious Catholics" within the administration, such as Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, should meet with Vatican officials to start a dialogue, which is "far preferable to the statements on social media."

Campbell, the Notre Dame professor, said those comments are indicative of how little can be gained for Trump and the Republicans in fighting with a popular religious figure such as Leo, who has been calm and measured in his criticism.

He said Republican candidates vying to hold on to their congressional seats this fall will probably try to duck the dispute altogether.

"There really is no benefit to picking a fight with the pope," Campbell said. "More broadly, I think you should expect to see Republicans, particularly in swing districts that have a large Catholic populations, will not want to be portrayed as in any way hostile to the church or to church leadership."

Trump's polling problem among Catholics

Some conservative leaders are confident Trump's tie to his religious base will overpower any reservations about his disrespect for the pontiff.

Ralph Reed, a prominent Christian conservative activist who sits on the president’s faith advisory board, told The Associated Press that Trump holds a "deep reservoir of appreciation" among faith-based voters that can withstand disagreement over a social media post.

That is particularly important on the political right given the resurgence of faith among younger voters, particularly Gen Z men, born in the years 1997 to 2012, who are taking a greater interest in religion.

"As young people seek out the Catholic faith today in droves, it is important for the church and American voters alike to recognize that the Trump administration' policies are a great benefit for people of faith in America, and we are on the cusp of America's Golden Age because of them," said Roberts, the Heritage president.

Trump showed no signs of heeding conservative activists calls for an offline summit between the two. Instead he called out Leo again over the pontiff's objection to the war in a late night April 14 post on Truth Social.

"Will someone please tell Pope Leo that Iran has killed at least 42,000 innocent, completely unarmed, protesters in the last two months, and that for Iran to have a nuclear bomb is absolutely unacceptable," Trump said.

Buchanan, the GOP pollster, said that events in April rarely affect the November elections but that Trump and his allies must be careful given how Catholics are swinging against the administration.

Polling shows a majority of Catholics, like most Americans, believe that Trump is doing a poor job as president and that they agree with Leo in opposing the Iran war.

A survey in March conducted jointly by Republican pollster Shaw & Co. Research and Democratic pollster Beacon Research before Trump's squabble with Leo erupted showed 52% of Catholics disapprove of Trump's performance as president. The poll showed 60% of Catholics disapprove of the war.

Asked how Republican contenders who hope Trump backs off while they seek reelection should talk to voters about the back-and-forth, Buchanan said they should change the subject: "My response would be: 'How about them Yankees?'"

This story has been updated to include new information.