Newsom, Harris emerge as Democratic favorites for 2028 in new poll

The next presidential election may be more than two years away, but voters already have some thoughts about their preferred candidates. And for Democrats, two Californians are at the forefront of voters' minds.

The Spring 2026 Yale Youth Poll, released Tuesday, April 14, found that former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom effectively tied at the top of the list for all surveyed Democratic voters. But when broken down by younger voters, preferences were more divided. 

Voters aged 18 to 34 favored New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first, at 32%, followed by Harris at 20%. Older voters aged 65 and up said they prefer Newsom, at 28%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, at 19%. 

Both Harris and Newsom have publicly shared their interest in a White House run, a break from the traditional “political gamesmanship that once defined presidential politics,” The Hill reported. 

“The base of the Democratic Party is ready to not only think about winning in 2028 but also are eager to jump-start the process of rebuilding the party,” Democratic strategist Joel Payne told The Hill, adding that 2028 hopefuls are “running to outflank each other and plant their flags as early as possible.” 

For the Republican Party, things are a bit less clear. 

The responses from the Yale Youth Poll found that among potential 2028 Republican presidential candidates, Vice President JD Vance led the pack with 43% Republican support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio came in a distant second, at 17%. 

But enthusiasm varied significantly among age groups. Republicans aged 18 to 34 supported Vance by the lowest percentage, at 31%, while older voters 45 and older favored the vice president by more than 46%. GOP voters between 35 and 44 supported a Vance 2028 run by 35%. 

About half of all Republican voters polled, 47%, say they would vote for Trump in the GOP primary if he ran for an unconstitutional third term. 

The poll, which sampled 3,429 registered voters, including 2,008 aged 18 to 34, was completed between March 9 and March 23. The margin of error after weighting is ±1.4 percentage points for the full sample and ±2.0 percentage points for the youth sample. 

Here’s what else to know about the Yale Youth Poll and its results. 

Young voters shun Trump 

The 2026 midterm elections are less than seven months away, and the newly released national poll indicates the youngest contingent of eligible voters could lean toward shunning the president and embracing the Democratic Party. 

For President Donald Trump, the results of Yale's Youth Poll show young voters in particular overwhelmingly disapprove of the president’s performance. More than two-thirds of voters between 18 and 34 expressed disapproval of the 47th president in the poll, eclipsing the president's overall approval rating. 

Large majorities of voters aged 18-22 (68%), 23-29 (72%), and 30-34 (75%) expressed disapproval of Trump's performance. In each of these age brackets, that represents a double-digit difference from the president's 57% disapproval rating among all voters aged 18 and up, according to the poll results. 

Positive views of Trump on the decline ahead of midterms 

The survey shows discontent with the president has been growing steadily since he returned to the White House in January 2025. 

Since the last Youth Yale Poll, conducted from October to November 2025, Trump’s approval has dropped among men and women in every age bracket under 35. 

But the decrease in approval is especially notable among young voters within the roughly five-month span. Among 18 to 22-year-olds, the percentage of voters who are unhappy with the president's performance has risen by four percentage points. Among voters aged 23 to 29 and those aged 30 to 34, the jump is even higher, with 7% and 11% increases in disapproval, respectively. 

In contrast, overall approval ratings in the Yale group's spring 2025 survey were slightly more favorable to Trump: he received 46% approval and 52% disapproval ratings. Since then, his approval rating in the poll has dropped five points, while his disapproval score has inched up by the same number of points. 

Though voters disapprove of Trump by large margins, the pollster notes that Democrats lead the midterm ballot by just two percentage points overall. 

Young voters say they intend to vote blue in November 

According to the poll, majorities of young voters plan to vote for Democrats in this fall's congressional midterm races, including 52% of 18- to 22-year-olds, 58% of 23- to 29-year-olds, and 62% of 30- to 34-year-olds. 

The pollster noted that young women, in particular, shifted significantly towards Democrats since the group's fall 2025 survey. Among party preferences for 18- to 22-year-old women, the Democratic Party has gained 17 points. For women aged 23 to 29, the increase is 10 points, and there's also a 17-point increase among women aged 30 to 34. 

Both men aged 23 to 29 and 30 to 34 shifted 14 points towards Democrats as well, the poll found. However, for the youngest group of men, the trend was an exception. Among 18- to 22-year-olds, the Democratic Party's approval margin fell by one point between last fall and the latest March polling. 

What is the Yale Youth Poll?

The Yale Youth Poll is America’s largest poll studying young adults. Conducted by undergraduate researchers at Yale University, the survey focuses on measuring the political views of young voters —primarily ages 18 to 34 — while also surveying the broader electorate for comparison.

The spring 2026 survey is the fourth Yale Youth Poll, with the inaugural poll conducted in fall 2024.